Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) is releasing its annual Williston Play Fundamentals that examines the distribution of remaining inventory across the play using economic and geologic viability. The report also dives into redevelopment performance and remaining potential, covering a variety of strategies. Below, EIR analyst and co-author of the report Morgan Howrish discusses how this forecast could shape the area’s future.
MPT: For those unfamiliar with your report, how would you describe Play Fundamentals?
Morgan Howrish: Play Fundamentals is an EIR research series that dives into a key geographical basin or technology. A collective series, with each play updated annually, it includes technical research and interactive maps, investment opportunities, benchmarking, macro trends and basin analytics, empowering readers to make intelligent connections and, overall, more informed investment, operating and strategic decisions. It is considered the most in-depth research EIR offers and among the most-read analysis series in the energy industry.
MPT: How do you see the near-future of extraction in the Bakken region?
Morgan Howrish: Bakken operators are facing a critical decision: when to lean into redevelopment, with only 1,400 sub-$50 per barrel breakeven locations remaining. We suggest sooner than later, by executing on multiple strategies: refracs, tight-infills, drill-overs and lease line wells. These options could unlock nearly 3,000 additional locations across the basin, all vying for investment particularly in the play’s core where remaining inventory is scarce.
MPT: How are operators reacting currently?
Morgan Howrish: Refracs, especially those with high proppant intensity, are emerging as contenders to help supplement basin wide production. Their mid-$50s breakevens can contend with new drills, albeit with a wider range of outcomes. While long laterals are becoming more common, they represent just 20 percent of new drilling activity as they are largely being executed in the extensional regions of the basin.
MPT: Is this consistent in all parts of the Bakken?
Morgan Howrish: Williston operators have executed about 15 percent more refracs than those in the Eagle Ford. While results vary, EIR finds that average refracs in the Williston produce about 50 percent of new drill estimated ultimate recovery (EUR), outperforming the Eagle Ford’s roughly 25 percent.
Co-completing the Three Forks with Middle Bakken results in up to 15 percent better recoveries than lagged equivalents, presenting a strategy best suited for operators in the core of the play where most sub-$50 per barrel Three Forks locations are held.
Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. For more information, or to read the full Williston Play Fundamentals, visit www.enverus.com.